The ethnic Russians in Eastern Estonia have been on both sides of the border and know that Russia is fucked up. I don’t think you are going to find very many, if any who want to trade life in Estonia for Mother Russia.
What the Russian-speaking people in Narva think is completely irrelevant; in due time, "little green men" will appear and identify themselves as members of the Narva Liberation Front. No army is needed for this; a few hundred special forces will suffice. They don't even need to occupy Narva; a few deaths are enough.
One problem with your theory. Losing. Actually two problems. Most of the Spetsnaz or VDV (airborne) forces who could do such a job have been in the cemetery since the late spring of 2022. I used to often drive through Pskov, which was home to a large airborne unit. It still is technically, but they are all new guys. The well trained guys got wiped out in the first months of the war.
If Russia sends provocateurs into Estonia or Latvia, the same thing will happen to them that happened when Russia tried to send little green men to Odessa in 2014. Civilians chased them, trapped them in a building and then somehow the building caught fire. Ukrainians actually tried to rescue the Russians but most did not make it out. After that, no activity from the Russians in Odessa.
Don't equate being ethnically Russian or speaking Russian as your mother tongue as meaning you want to live in a corrupt, repressive shithole and be governed by the Russian sociopaths.
NATO, even without the US would clean Russia's clock. Russia is completely depleted. If you are getting your ass kicked in Ukraine, you should not try NATO. FPV drones will kill Russians jest as well in Estonia as they do in Ukraine. And Putin knows that being embarrassed in Estonia or Latvia would be the end of his days on Earth. He would get taken out by the Siloviki in a heartbeat. Russia is totally finished, and regular Russians now see what is coming.
Russia has its hands full with the Ukrainians and all of their refineries and oil export terminals on fire. They will be lucky if they get to keep Kaliningrad.
An attack on Narva, or Svalbard, is not aimed at conquest but rather represents a test case for NATO. This doesn't require an army; a few hundred soldiers are sufficient.
This has been my thinking for a while. Russia needs a win, what is the easiest target? The tiniest Baltic republic, not Poland. Poland will capture Moscow within a month of attacking.
The ethnic Russians in Eastern Estonia have been on both sides of the border and know that Russia is fucked up. I don’t think you are going to find very many, if any who want to trade life in Estonia for Mother Russia.
What the Russian-speaking people in Narva think is completely irrelevant; in due time, "little green men" will appear and identify themselves as members of the Narva Liberation Front. No army is needed for this; a few hundred special forces will suffice. They don't even need to occupy Narva; a few deaths are enough.
Trump agreed to that plan from Putin
https://substack.com/@professorbonk/note/c-238399796?r=hzj89
One problem with your theory. Losing. Actually two problems. Most of the Spetsnaz or VDV (airborne) forces who could do such a job have been in the cemetery since the late spring of 2022. I used to often drive through Pskov, which was home to a large airborne unit. It still is technically, but they are all new guys. The well trained guys got wiped out in the first months of the war.
If Russia sends provocateurs into Estonia or Latvia, the same thing will happen to them that happened when Russia tried to send little green men to Odessa in 2014. Civilians chased them, trapped them in a building and then somehow the building caught fire. Ukrainians actually tried to rescue the Russians but most did not make it out. After that, no activity from the Russians in Odessa.
Don't equate being ethnically Russian or speaking Russian as your mother tongue as meaning you want to live in a corrupt, repressive shithole and be governed by the Russian sociopaths.
NATO, even without the US would clean Russia's clock. Russia is completely depleted. If you are getting your ass kicked in Ukraine, you should not try NATO. FPV drones will kill Russians jest as well in Estonia as they do in Ukraine. And Putin knows that being embarrassed in Estonia or Latvia would be the end of his days on Earth. He would get taken out by the Siloviki in a heartbeat. Russia is totally finished, and regular Russians now see what is coming.
Russia has its hands full with the Ukrainians and all of their refineries and oil export terminals on fire. They will be lucky if they get to keep Kaliningrad.
An attack on Narva, or Svalbard, is not aimed at conquest but rather represents a test case for NATO. This doesn't require an army; a few hundred soldiers are sufficient.
This has been my thinking for a while. Russia needs a win, what is the easiest target? The tiniest Baltic republic, not Poland. Poland will capture Moscow within a month of attacking.
Trump told Putin he wouldn’t object to an invasion of Estonia
IF ESTONIA WANTS WAR GIVE IT TO THEM