Western analysts keep asking whether Ukraine's campaign against Russian refineries is actually working. I ran Russia's largest oil company and my answer is yes.
Russia appears to be in a slow process of devolution to somewhere in the 19th century, which perfectly fits Putin’s worldview. We will see refineries collapse and planes fail due to lack of maintenance and spare parts. I wish it could be averted but Putin is hell bent on keeping the war going.
Thank you. As a Canadian following the invasion events daily, your important and well written analysis offers hope that our Ukrainian brothers and sisters may be closer to the end of this nightmare.
It all depends what is hit. As storage tank can be replaced but a cracking unit or distillation unit is much harder to replace. Many of them are site specific, designed to deal with a particular input chemistry and to produce particular output products. You can’t just buy them off the shelf. They cost tens of millions of dollars and take months to build and install and test. Many of the suppliers are US companies who can’t supply into Russia. It is the strikes against these parts of refineries that are causing the big problem for Russia. It is also worth noting that Russia is blending fuels to deal with these problems but some of these fuels have little friction reducing additive or cold flow improved packages so will damage internal combustion engines. Aviation fuel is also going to be a problem in the near future as the spec is very tight.
If the cracking towers are badly damaged and new catalysts are required the Russians have to look westward to suppliers such as BASF, Shell, Albermarle, W.R.Grace & Co. Unfortunately there are two Chinese companies that might step in, Sinopec and SNPC.
This raises an interesting question, who will fund restoration of these refineries? If Moscow seeks western aid the response is likely to be: “Putin on a plane to the Haig, then come talk”. However if individual breakaway provinces seek funding they’ll find the welcome mat laid out (provided they support rule of law, democratic norms and not invading neighboring countries -something Moscow just can’t seem to grasp).
(Moscow could approach China for aid, but China would take them to the cleaners).
Support my project. I have immigrated from Russia, and now I am working to develop my Substack project as a war diary. (https://substack.com/@jamescole29012003)
Thank you for a most informative essay. I follow Ukraine closely. (And I studied Russia for decades.)
Russia appears to be in a slow process of devolution to somewhere in the 19th century, which perfectly fits Putin’s worldview. We will see refineries collapse and planes fail due to lack of maintenance and spare parts. I wish it could be averted but Putin is hell bent on keeping the war going.
Thank you. As a Canadian following the invasion events daily, your important and well written analysis offers hope that our Ukrainian brothers and sisters may be closer to the end of this nightmare.
It’s a pity Russia will still be able to murder so many people in Ukraine before its own unavoidable downfall and disintegration
It all depends what is hit. As storage tank can be replaced but a cracking unit or distillation unit is much harder to replace. Many of them are site specific, designed to deal with a particular input chemistry and to produce particular output products. You can’t just buy them off the shelf. They cost tens of millions of dollars and take months to build and install and test. Many of the suppliers are US companies who can’t supply into Russia. It is the strikes against these parts of refineries that are causing the big problem for Russia. It is also worth noting that Russia is blending fuels to deal with these problems but some of these fuels have little friction reducing additive or cold flow improved packages so will damage internal combustion engines. Aviation fuel is also going to be a problem in the near future as the spec is very tight.
Logical essay. Thank you for posting.
If the cracking towers are badly damaged and new catalysts are required the Russians have to look westward to suppliers such as BASF, Shell, Albermarle, W.R.Grace & Co. Unfortunately there are two Chinese companies that might step in, Sinopec and SNPC.
Thanks for this article ,this explanation based in experience, is this very valuable!
Yup, maintenance is boring and no one thinks about it. And gear is usually over-engineered, so it keeps working - until it doesn’t.
This raises an interesting question, who will fund restoration of these refineries? If Moscow seeks western aid the response is likely to be: “Putin on a plane to the Haig, then come talk”. However if individual breakaway provinces seek funding they’ll find the welcome mat laid out (provided they support rule of law, democratic norms and not invading neighboring countries -something Moscow just can’t seem to grasp).
(Moscow could approach China for aid, but China would take them to the cleaners).
When you find time to share your insight
If Putin is gone what will happen for CCP ?
traitors will say anything to get their next paycheck from their masters
Mikhail of course haven’t been involved in the Russian oil industry for well over a decade.
Ukrainian pin prick strikes may look dramatic, but aren’t likely to cause any real damage that can’t be repaired in weeks.
And in the meantime, the higher oil prices more than compensate for minor production dips.
Ural oil is well past Brent in price. Around 100$ over the so called price ceiling.
Support my project. I have immigrated from Russia, and now I am working to develop my Substack project as a war diary. (https://substack.com/@jamescole29012003)
:) :) :)
Shill.