I have been asked why Trump, who is supposedly Putin’s friend, did not block the new American sanctions package. And just how “hellish” these sanctions will be for Russia.
Look, I would be careful about saying that Trump is Putin’s friend. Trump is nobody’s friend.
But it appears that Putin does appeal to him. Perhaps he would like to have the same powers Putin has. But American society is not built for that. Trump has to fight much harder political battles to resolve the questions he wants to resolve. And, as we can see, he does not always succeed.
Nevertheless, the sanctions package approved by Congress looks very tough. It provides for tariffs of up to 500% on Russian goods, and up to 100% on goods from certain major buyers of Russian oil and gas or countries facilitating Russian oil sanctions evasion. It also creates additional possibilities for action against the shadow fleet.
But we have to understand what powers Trump has under this legislation.
There are mandatory measures in the law. At the same time, Trump has broad powers to waive them in America’s national interest. That gives him an increase in his own powers, with considerable freedom over how he applies these measures against Putin.
Trade between Russia and the United States is already very small. Imports of Russian oil have long since been stopped. What remains could easily be presented as an exception, if that is what Trump wants to do.
The same question arises with third countries.
We know Russia’s two largest trading partners: China and India. How likely is Trump to impose the full 100% tariffs on either of them? I think that is extremely unlikely.
The legislation allows tariffs of up to 100%. That leaves him room to choose.
And there is another point here. The Supreme Court struck down tariffs Trump had imposed because he did not have the authority to impose them. This legislation gives him a way to replace some of those tariffs with similar ones introduced under a new law.
For Trump and his administration, that is an opportunity. It would be strange if he did not take advantage of it.
I would not say that all this has nothing to do with his relationship with Putin. But Trump has so much freedom over how to use these powers that I would not make that relationship the central explanation.
Yes, he now has another instrument in his hands.
And I expect him to use it just as he has used the instruments available to him before.