After more than four years of war, both sides are confronting the same reality: the front has stalled and the continuation of the war is too costly to sustain.
How can there be a truce when Putin breaks his word every time. Putin will have to learn the hard way that the war is destabilizing him politically, and things could get bad. Cutting off internet for several days is not the way to win friends. He is alienating the home base.
You write: “Neither side is making meaningful gains, and any attempt to change that would carry serious costs and would require mobilizing more soldiers and straining even more their already exhausted economies. For that reason, the May ceasefire feels like a turning point.”
But if for four years “neither side is making meaningful gains,” then in what sense is it a “turning point”?
The thing that makes a change possible is not that both sides are exhausted and in stalemate, it is that Ukraine is turning this around through it long range and medium range destruction of key economic infrastructure across Russia and Russianlogistical supplies in the occupied territories - epitomised by the fact that fuel is now unavailable in Crimea with even the ration tokens now withdrawn, and Ukraine now making net advances on the frontline even as Russia has its summer offensive in full swing. That has created the circumstances in which many of those around Putin if not Putin himself see that Russia cannot effectively continue its campaign without huge risk. Stalemate is not enough, but if Ukraine is turning the tide that can turn things. However, the problem with a negotiated settlement even then is that Putin is likely to use what would be a ceasefire ( given the dosputed territories it can’t be more) to regroup, rearm as he retains the ambition. A strong, independent and European orientated Ukraine is not acceptable to him. This is why Ukraine continues to seek guarantees from NATO allies as part of any substantive ceasefire and fundamentally that at least to now has to include the US to be credible. But under Trump, how can the US be credible? The quickest way to a solution is to support Ukraine to far more clearly break the back of Russian capability - that may now be happening but it will be decisive defeats and not simply stalemate over the next few months that opens the door, and then a credible guarantee from at least Europe and likely the US to back up any agreement. Perhaps the November midterms will open that door?
I'd love Ukraine to now send a multiple drone strike into Red Square, just to prove they could have hit the parade, that they really did authorise parade, to tell the world that they could have hit Putin, but let him have his silly little parade
What a demonstration of the changing initiative in the war that world be
I don’t trust Putin and never will. And person who replaces Putin, same no trust. The Russian people and leadership have a long row to hoe to gain the trust of the world after 500 years or so of conquering their neighbors.
Where is the agreed prisoner exchange negotiated by the US for the truce, Could President Zelenskey get the Ukrainian military and people to agree to peace, what terms would Ukraine accept ensure Russia cannot come back for more at a later date
Methinks you discount both the Ukrainian resolve *and* the new Ukrainian momentum in the skies of battle: Russia no longer has the upper hand.
How can there be a truce when Putin breaks his word every time. Putin will have to learn the hard way that the war is destabilizing him politically, and things could get bad. Cutting off internet for several days is not the way to win friends. He is alienating the home base.
I’m wondering whether Putin can ever be trusted…
You write: “Neither side is making meaningful gains, and any attempt to change that would carry serious costs and would require mobilizing more soldiers and straining even more their already exhausted economies. For that reason, the May ceasefire feels like a turning point.”
But if for four years “neither side is making meaningful gains,” then in what sense is it a “turning point”?
Russia will go on.
They have no reason to stop.
I disagree with your analysis.
The decrete hit him right between the eyes.
The thing that makes a change possible is not that both sides are exhausted and in stalemate, it is that Ukraine is turning this around through it long range and medium range destruction of key economic infrastructure across Russia and Russianlogistical supplies in the occupied territories - epitomised by the fact that fuel is now unavailable in Crimea with even the ration tokens now withdrawn, and Ukraine now making net advances on the frontline even as Russia has its summer offensive in full swing. That has created the circumstances in which many of those around Putin if not Putin himself see that Russia cannot effectively continue its campaign without huge risk. Stalemate is not enough, but if Ukraine is turning the tide that can turn things. However, the problem with a negotiated settlement even then is that Putin is likely to use what would be a ceasefire ( given the dosputed territories it can’t be more) to regroup, rearm as he retains the ambition. A strong, independent and European orientated Ukraine is not acceptable to him. This is why Ukraine continues to seek guarantees from NATO allies as part of any substantive ceasefire and fundamentally that at least to now has to include the US to be credible. But under Trump, how can the US be credible? The quickest way to a solution is to support Ukraine to far more clearly break the back of Russian capability - that may now be happening but it will be decisive defeats and not simply stalemate over the next few months that opens the door, and then a credible guarantee from at least Europe and likely the US to back up any agreement. Perhaps the November midterms will open that door?
I'd love Ukraine to now send a multiple drone strike into Red Square, just to prove they could have hit the parade, that they really did authorise parade, to tell the world that they could have hit Putin, but let him have his silly little parade
What a demonstration of the changing initiative in the war that world be
I don’t trust Putin and never will. And person who replaces Putin, same no trust. The Russian people and leadership have a long row to hoe to gain the trust of the world after 500 years or so of conquering their neighbors.
Where is the agreed prisoner exchange negotiated by the US for the truce, Could President Zelenskey get the Ukrainian military and people to agree to peace, what terms would Ukraine accept ensure Russia cannot come back for more at a later date