It is the fundamental error of the West to assume Putin is looking for a way out. He thinks he just has to hold on a little longer, and then everything will be fine.
To quote Mark Twain "There are lies, damned lies and statistics". Mala Tokmachka has been taken at least half a dozen times according to Russian media but still remains (just about) in Ukrainian hands. I worry that the Russian people's propensity to swallow 'damned lies', suffer deprivation and tolerate tyranny will extend this war into 2028.
I think this is one of those moments that happens slowly than all of a sudden. All the oil infrastructure that the Ukrainians are destroying will eventually have a deadly impact on the Russians and the economy. Add to this the ease with which Ukrainian drones are circulating over Russian territory and they can also make their winter in Moscow and St-Pegerburg very cold.
Putin has wks not months remaining. He is being undermined. Putin’s departure will be the end of the Cold War. Something academics have missed entirely.
Ukraine is just out-innovating Putin's system and taking the initiative in more and more aspects of the war. The dynamic is clear, at some point the results will finally enter to the old man's head.
Question is more: what will he do when he realises the longer this goes, the more he loses? Negotiate or escalate?
Dictators always double down before losing. Most likely: an attack on a Baltic state. Could give him a nicer exit too - grab some NATO land, even if symbolic, and go home. But things could get out of control again.
Your assessment of Putin’s rationale is sound. Europe has never sent a clear ‘game over’ signal. However if I was a Russian, I’d realize that continuing this war is far worse than losing it. Infrastructure was worn out before the war started, because of the war the economy is steadily degrading. Once this war ends, unlike Ukraine, no one will come to Moscows rescue. And still Putin thinks ‘one more push’ and ‘any day now’.
I’m thinking he gets a steady dream of cash along with what China sends. Trump, his billionaire administration, the Epstein Class, the Epstein Tech Bros (which might include Gates), Oligarchs, Rothchilds, Africa Corp……
A little depressing. However I think you’re right. And perhaps under his calculation he will win.
To quote Mark Twain "There are lies, damned lies and statistics". Mala Tokmachka has been taken at least half a dozen times according to Russian media but still remains (just about) in Ukrainian hands. I worry that the Russian people's propensity to swallow 'damned lies', suffer deprivation and tolerate tyranny will extend this war into 2028.
I think this is one of those moments that happens slowly than all of a sudden. All the oil infrastructure that the Ukrainians are destroying will eventually have a deadly impact on the Russians and the economy. Add to this the ease with which Ukrainian drones are circulating over Russian territory and they can also make their winter in Moscow and St-Pegerburg very cold.
Excellent article.
Putin has wks not months remaining. He is being undermined. Putin’s departure will be the end of the Cold War. Something academics have missed entirely.
Ukraine is just out-innovating Putin's system and taking the initiative in more and more aspects of the war. The dynamic is clear, at some point the results will finally enter to the old man's head.
Question is more: what will he do when he realises the longer this goes, the more he loses? Negotiate or escalate?
Dictators always double down before losing. Most likely: an attack on a Baltic state. Could give him a nicer exit too - grab some NATO land, even if symbolic, and go home. But things could get out of control again.
A sober and unfortunately unfavorable analysis for Ukraine. The West and America continue to betray their promises and their own long term interests.
Your assessment of Putin’s rationale is sound. Europe has never sent a clear ‘game over’ signal. However if I was a Russian, I’d realize that continuing this war is far worse than losing it. Infrastructure was worn out before the war started, because of the war the economy is steadily degrading. Once this war ends, unlike Ukraine, no one will come to Moscows rescue. And still Putin thinks ‘one more push’ and ‘any day now’.
Europe is run by welfare state politicians, while only objective is to buy more votes
What if the EU's play is to appropriate and redirect Russian assets held in Brussels? Does that help with the calculus in Ukraine's favor?
Correction, it is already happening.
I’m thinking he gets a steady dream of cash along with what China sends. Trump, his billionaire administration, the Epstein Class, the Epstein Tech Bros (which might include Gates), Oligarchs, Rothchilds, Africa Corp……