Ukraine's goal is to destroy Russia's war machine. The drones are doing their part — hitting refineries, crippling logistics, bleeding the budget, reaching targets Moscow thought were untouchable. But Russia was already rotting from inside — the competence left two decades ago, what remained was corruption, theft, and circular cover-ups dressed as governance. The strikes didn't expose a weakness. They exposed a country that was never as strong as it pretended to be.
This continues the pattern of incurring long term cost for short term relief. Maybe okay for a couple of years, but now it’s becoming extraordinarily dangerous to the Russian economy.
Reading this post I somehow start to realize that today's ruzzian opposition is really about how to get "ordinary ruzzians" suffer less than about how to stop this war and fix putistan ambitions to kill everyone who thinks differently.
I will fill the gap, there is another way out - putler gets out of Ukraine.
What factors would drive a "modern" revolution? Probably some are the same as in the 20th century, others are more in line with today's life style ....!?
How deep is the loyalty within all the various 'security' branches, including. the military?
Lots of questions and many more not shown here. Most answers are likely to be imprecise.
Mikhail, in the week since you wrote this, more refineries have now been hit, and others hit again. Does this analysis change now that the refining capacity reduction is closer to 40-45%? I assume there is some tipping point beyond which mere free-market reforms and better logistics cannot paper over a disconnect between the rock-bottom demand level that is needed to supply the military and key industrial / agricultural uses, and what supply is available. So it may well be that your "if" in the later paragraphs has come to pass. Many of us would likely be interested in how you see that playing out in Russian society. Can they import their way around it? Can they put enough air defense around the key refineries, and repair them to full capacity? Can they alter the balance of which fuels are refined? Will they be willing to accept public protest over some things but not others, or expect that there will be no protest regardless? What of the economic impact? Few people know the answers to these better than you do.
Not that I want to find out but I wonder how a similar fuel crisis would show and be handled in the States or the EU. There is much to learn on our side about this vulnerability of modern societies
It would be bad but I suspect nowhere near as bad. The States and the EU have not suffered the same brain drain as Russia.
How bad is it? Well, I was a Ph.D. Russian expert and visited Russia dozens of times over the years. My closest friends were all technical people and scientists.
Of all my many friends there, only one has stayed. The loss of brain power is truly catastrophic.
Russia can import as much gasoline as it can take from DPRK and China. This will not prevent the Sloviansk/Kramatorsk aggloneration from falling to Russia.
Ukraine's goal is to destroy Russia's war machine. The drones are doing their part — hitting refineries, crippling logistics, bleeding the budget, reaching targets Moscow thought were untouchable. But Russia was already rotting from inside — the competence left two decades ago, what remained was corruption, theft, and circular cover-ups dressed as governance. The strikes didn't expose a weakness. They exposed a country that was never as strong as it pretended to be.
Sounds like America you're describing, the paper tuger exposed by Iran.
This continues the pattern of incurring long term cost for short term relief. Maybe okay for a couple of years, but now it’s becoming extraordinarily dangerous to the Russian economy.
Reading this post I somehow start to realize that today's ruzzian opposition is really about how to get "ordinary ruzzians" suffer less than about how to stop this war and fix putistan ambitions to kill everyone who thinks differently.
I will fill the gap, there is another way out - putler gets out of Ukraine.
There are three hot seats in hell waiting.
PUTIN
BIBI
TRUMP
What factors would drive a "modern" revolution? Probably some are the same as in the 20th century, others are more in line with today's life style ....!?
How deep is the loyalty within all the various 'security' branches, including. the military?
Lots of questions and many more not shown here. Most answers are likely to be imprecise.
Mikhail, in the week since you wrote this, more refineries have now been hit, and others hit again. Does this analysis change now that the refining capacity reduction is closer to 40-45%? I assume there is some tipping point beyond which mere free-market reforms and better logistics cannot paper over a disconnect between the rock-bottom demand level that is needed to supply the military and key industrial / agricultural uses, and what supply is available. So it may well be that your "if" in the later paragraphs has come to pass. Many of us would likely be interested in how you see that playing out in Russian society. Can they import their way around it? Can they put enough air defense around the key refineries, and repair them to full capacity? Can they alter the balance of which fuels are refined? Will they be willing to accept public protest over some things but not others, or expect that there will be no protest regardless? What of the economic impact? Few people know the answers to these better than you do.
Russia has turned into a gigantic, slowly melting Chernobyl
🇩🇰❤️🇺🇦
Not that I want to find out but I wonder how a similar fuel crisis would show and be handled in the States or the EU. There is much to learn on our side about this vulnerability of modern societies
It would be bad but I suspect nowhere near as bad. The States and the EU have not suffered the same brain drain as Russia.
How bad is it? Well, I was a Ph.D. Russian expert and visited Russia dozens of times over the years. My closest friends were all technical people and scientists.
Of all my many friends there, only one has stayed. The loss of brain power is truly catastrophic.
And yet it's the vaunted Western "defence" contractors still unable to cobble together a working hypersonic missile.
Brain drain doesn't matter if the "brains" do little more than build data centers for AI bubbles.
Penser aux trottinettes électriques (ou au vélo, électrique ou pas)
Excellent post, thank you!
Russia can import as much gasoline as it can take from DPRK and China. This will not prevent the Sloviansk/Kramatorsk aggloneration from falling to Russia.
Third way out, for the Kremlin.
Begin regular Oreshnik strikes on Ukronazi decision centres, Western defence contractors and other pressure points until Zelenskyy is deposed.
Tactical nukes are also an option.