How the Middle East Conflict Is Quietly Reshaping Putin's Position

The war in Iran certainly helps Putin — just not as much economically as it does politically

A common argument in the moment is that Putin is the main economic beneficiary of the ongoing war in Iran. The logic is simple: he can sell more oil at higher prices, therefore he will have more money for the war he is waging against Ukraine.

In my view, while there is certainly a degree of truth in this, it greatly exaggerates the economic impact on the regime and obscures something that’s far more important: creating conditions for the return of Putin as a global player.

In essence, Trump did for Putin what Putin couldn’t achieve by starting a war in Ukraine: he took his regime beyond the status of a regional power. But all of this depends on the war ending within five to six weeks. If it drags on — especially into ground operations — it could not only neutralise Russia’s short-term gains but undermine the entire geopolitical effect the Kremlin expects.

I lay out the full argument in The Telegraph: read here.