A ceasefire is likely coming. Whether it becomes lasting peace or just the runway for the next phase depends on what Ukraine's partners do the next eight weeks.
Makes sense. Just surprised people still talk about security guarantees at this point. As shown in the Iran war, even the US is perfectly incapable of fighting a second-rate drone army. At this point only Ukraine can match (or beat) Russia's drone performance, so who the heck can give any form of security guarantee?
Unless they talk about Ukraine giving security guarantees to the Baltic states? Possibly more the point.
Just an observation: a single Lukoil station in PA only had regular petrol for sale. I wondered how much was due to the war in Iran, how much was due to UAF drone strikes, and how much was ordinary supply problems.
If the 'system' (of theft and corruption) is to continue, the next generation must oust Putin (or retire him). People like Andrei Patrushev, minister of agriculture with great connections could end the war, 'eventually' reinstate Russia, get back to their vineyards in Italy, their yachts in Antibes, their houses in London. The Russian public continue to live like cows in a field. Or, am I being too cynical!
Please don't ask fake and stupid questions; Russia is months away from a total collapse. SO, no it's not winning, it's going to dissolve into the United States of Russia, and that's the best-case scenario, which will take 10-20 years to play out.
There still seems to be a lot of open nervousness in the government about the budget even with the indefinite spike in oil prices. That seems to suggest that there are broader concerns than just the deficit. At some point all of the “off balance sheet” spending on the war that has been paid by industry is going to be a serious issue.
I don't see how Ukraine and Russia can negotiate in good faith. Both sides still believe that they can win this war of attrition.
Until recently, Russia demanded the Ukraine give away the rest of Donbas region before they start a ceasefire (quite preposterous, if you ask me - first you start a ceasefire, then you negotiate). If Russia asks for a ceasefire, that may be taken as a sign of weakness, and as Piotr Stolypin once said, showing weakness in Russia is extremely dangerous.
Makes sense. Just surprised people still talk about security guarantees at this point. As shown in the Iran war, even the US is perfectly incapable of fighting a second-rate drone army. At this point only Ukraine can match (or beat) Russia's drone performance, so who the heck can give any form of security guarantee?
Unless they talk about Ukraine giving security guarantees to the Baltic states? Possibly more the point.
Just an observation: a single Lukoil station in PA only had regular petrol for sale. I wondered how much was due to the war in Iran, how much was due to UAF drone strikes, and how much was ordinary supply problems.
The Negotiations are all BS. Zelensky is just playing the game to keep Trumpf happy. When the term is over Zelensky will tell Trumpf to kiss his ass.
If the 'system' (of theft and corruption) is to continue, the next generation must oust Putin (or retire him). People like Andrei Patrushev, minister of agriculture with great connections could end the war, 'eventually' reinstate Russia, get back to their vineyards in Italy, their yachts in Antibes, their houses in London. The Russian public continue to live like cows in a field. Or, am I being too cynical!
If there is a ceasefire, Putin will regard it as an opportunity to consolidate, rearm, and get ready for the next push.
If Putin does call for a ceasefire, it is a sure sign he knows he is losing.
Please don't ask fake and stupid questions; Russia is months away from a total collapse. SO, no it's not winning, it's going to dissolve into the United States of Russia, and that's the best-case scenario, which will take 10-20 years to play out.
There still seems to be a lot of open nervousness in the government about the budget even with the indefinite spike in oil prices. That seems to suggest that there are broader concerns than just the deficit. At some point all of the “off balance sheet” spending on the war that has been paid by industry is going to be a serious issue.
Oil imports from Kazakhstan amount to 2.5-3% of Germany's total oil imports.
I don't see how Ukraine and Russia can negotiate in good faith. Both sides still believe that they can win this war of attrition.
Until recently, Russia demanded the Ukraine give away the rest of Donbas region before they start a ceasefire (quite preposterous, if you ask me - first you start a ceasefire, then you negotiate). If Russia asks for a ceasefire, that may be taken as a sign of weakness, and as Piotr Stolypin once said, showing weakness in Russia is extremely dangerous.
Negotiations are