China is the master pivot of the game, slowly gaining ground in Russia’s territory in the South, buying factories and shares in the industry, making sure Russia doesn’t lose… and doesn’t win. Beijing still needs good relations with EU so it must not look like the one killing children and elderly. Ultimately though it will help replace Putin
I have read various articles by economists stating that the transition from a wartime economy to a peacetime economy is very difficult. Furthermore, it is hard to imagine all those armed, brutalized soldiers simply returning to civilian life. Many historical examples suggest otherwise—such as Germany after World War I and Russia after the Russo-Japanese War.
Thank you for your work. Much interest in this piece and good counterpoint to the cheers for the refineries being hit.
In fact I find it hard to imagine that the economy can keep running if they don't find a solution to the strikes on refineries. But your views and experience tamper this optimism.
…western sanctions are useless without will and means to strictly enforce it, it’s like in that Seinfeld episode with car reservation when he made a reservation and they said they don’t have a car
Guaranteed, Zelenskyy's death will come first. Either through a Russian Oreshnik into his bedroom, poisoned cocaine from the neo-Nazis, or, if he manages to flee Ukraine, Kolomoisky will hunt him to the ends of the earth for his bbetrayal.
How many pro Putin posts are you required to generate for your master per day? Are you paid by the piece? I hope it’s not by quality because you’re a terrible troll 🤡
ALL HE TRIES TO DO IS PROTECT MOSCOW ANYWAY… PROTECTING A SINGLE METROPOLITAN CITY FROM THE STRESS OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS IS RELATIVELY EASY IF THAT'S ALL YOU'RE TRYING TO DO AND LATELY UKRAINE THINKS MOSCOW SHOULD JOIN THE PARTY LOL… 😉👌💥💥💥💥💥💥👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
Russia can out produce the collective West. One reason is that you cannot just look at GDP. GDP consists of consumption, savings, investment, financial services, and industrial capacity. You can't ramp up military production via consumption and services. Only 11% of the US GDP is industrial capacity, while 40% of Russian GDP is Industrial capacity (the % the US had in 1944). Using PPP as a measure of GDP, Russian industry and manufacturing is only slightly smaller than the US in US$ (2026).
Furthermore, there's reason to believe that Russia gets way more bang for the buck. For profit US suppliers don't keep or train employees not needed for current production because they maximize shareholders wealth; Russia keeps and trains staff at arms manufacturers at war-time levels because like a US police or fire dept, the goal isn't profit, but to maximize response times.
There is also the issue of self-sufficiency. The US is very dependent on China for rare earth mineral processing (China has 90% of that capacity); Russia is dependent - although they have huge domestic deposits - but has a symbiotic relationship with China.
Russia has been underestimated for many reasons. These being just a few. Those believing that Ukraine might defeat Russia should assess this simple reality
An old Irish man from Bangor Co Down N. I. who has sympathetically supported Ukraine, since the start of the current invasion at the time I couldn’t see how the Ukrainians could stop the Russian’s with petrol bombs then Boris Johnston the UK. PM. stepped in with armaments and he got the Europeans to supply Ukraine with more armaments, then the USA Joe Biden came up with a good supply of armaments which the Ukrainians were most grateful for. I felt sorry for Volodymyr Zelensky when he was attacked by Trump and his pack of hounds it was like Trump was a XX Bully dog with three Doberman dogs attacking a little Spaniel dog. I seen visions of Zelensky getting a big award like “Man of the Decade” or “Man of the Century” But now it seems he’s shot himself in the foot with the dismissal of the main defence man Fedorov. Every morning I go to my Computer and open the Ukraine News page to see what damage they have done to Russia. I wish, hope and Pray that Russia will give up in the next few weeks before Winter sets in, how those poor Ukrainians lived and survived without power or heating through last winter I’ll never know it says a lot for their resilience
Strong piece, and the China-dependency framing, six to twelve months of sustainment without those inputs, is the sharpest number I've seen on this. One honest caveat: I argued in 'The Man Who Cannot Afford Peace' that ending the war raises near-term recession risk through defence-industrial demobilisation. That claim is more contested than I presented it: Recorded Future's work on elite patronage networks supports it, but other analysts, using a lower GDP share for war spending, argue the opposite. Where we agree regardless of how that resolves: as I wrote there, the real danger to Putin from peace is political, not fiscal. It's the year after, when someone finally asks what a million casualties bought.
Hello, an indirectly related question: what do you think about the Economist interview with Melnichenko? The timing of it, the sincerity/ stakes, the reason behind giving this interview, what does this interview say about the state of the country, what is Putin’s relationship with Mr. M and this interview?
Ukraine is Winning based on real figures from verified sources The undeniable physical reality on the ground—from a 29.4% refinery outage to a collapsed Crimean supply chain—shows that the underlying material framework of this war is rapidly running out of time. Our models show that both Russian and Ukrainian Domestic Resilience (IRI/URI) are reaching absolute saturation thresholds, collapsing the Russian Negotiating Position (RNP) beneath its critical tipping boundary. See the verifiable, data-driven metrics athttps://substack.com/@thewartippingpointengineer
Dear Xi,
Please dispatch Putin to hell.
From,
An Australian who stands with Ukraine.
China is the master pivot of the game, slowly gaining ground in Russia’s territory in the South, buying factories and shares in the industry, making sure Russia doesn’t lose… and doesn’t win. Beijing still needs good relations with EU so it must not look like the one killing children and elderly. Ultimately though it will help replace Putin
I have read various articles by economists stating that the transition from a wartime economy to a peacetime economy is very difficult. Furthermore, it is hard to imagine all those armed, brutalized soldiers simply returning to civilian life. Many historical examples suggest otherwise—such as Germany after World War I and Russia after the Russo-Japanese War.
Thank you - great analysis.
But it is collapsing
Thank you for your work. Much interest in this piece and good counterpoint to the cheers for the refineries being hit.
In fact I find it hard to imagine that the economy can keep running if they don't find a solution to the strikes on refineries. But your views and experience tamper this optimism.
…western sanctions are useless without will and means to strictly enforce it, it’s like in that Seinfeld episode with car reservation when he made a reservation and they said they don’t have a car
Nice analogy.
I am waiting for Putin’s obituary actually.
Guaranteed, Zelenskyy's death will come first. Either through a Russian Oreshnik into his bedroom, poisoned cocaine from the neo-Nazis, or, if he manages to flee Ukraine, Kolomoisky will hunt him to the ends of the earth for his bbetrayal.
Regardless, good riddance to a bad comedian.
Me thinks you are dead from meat grinder now. Russia is the asshole of the world. Putin the Pedro's puppet, tells bad joke. AGAIN.
No, silly, USA is the "asshole of the world" and Ukraine is merely the taint.
How many pro Putin posts are you required to generate for your master per day? Are you paid by the piece? I hope it’s not by quality because you’re a terrible troll 🤡
"Pro-Putin"? No, just anti-fascist, Skippy.
My nation has a proud tradition of murdering Nazis...whereas you whitewash them, import them, and now coddle and arm them in Ukraine and "israel".
Fucking embarrassing.
So a shill with a generic left shill bio. Okay.
So, a nobody, with no followers, and no argument..?
Do you even exist?
Shill cringe.
ALL HE TRIES TO DO IS PROTECT MOSCOW ANYWAY… PROTECTING A SINGLE METROPOLITAN CITY FROM THE STRESS OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS IS RELATIVELY EASY IF THAT'S ALL YOU'RE TRYING TO DO AND LATELY UKRAINE THINKS MOSCOW SHOULD JOIN THE PARTY LOL… 😉👌💥💥💥💥💥💥👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
Excellent commentary, Russia’s economic woes are internally generated rather than the West’s doing.
Great article and analysis.
Russia can out produce the collective West. One reason is that you cannot just look at GDP. GDP consists of consumption, savings, investment, financial services, and industrial capacity. You can't ramp up military production via consumption and services. Only 11% of the US GDP is industrial capacity, while 40% of Russian GDP is Industrial capacity (the % the US had in 1944). Using PPP as a measure of GDP, Russian industry and manufacturing is only slightly smaller than the US in US$ (2026).
Furthermore, there's reason to believe that Russia gets way more bang for the buck. For profit US suppliers don't keep or train employees not needed for current production because they maximize shareholders wealth; Russia keeps and trains staff at arms manufacturers at war-time levels because like a US police or fire dept, the goal isn't profit, but to maximize response times.
There is also the issue of self-sufficiency. The US is very dependent on China for rare earth mineral processing (China has 90% of that capacity); Russia is dependent - although they have huge domestic deposits - but has a symbiotic relationship with China.
Russia has been underestimated for many reasons. These being just a few. Those believing that Ukraine might defeat Russia should assess this simple reality
An old Irish man from Bangor Co Down N. I. who has sympathetically supported Ukraine, since the start of the current invasion at the time I couldn’t see how the Ukrainians could stop the Russian’s with petrol bombs then Boris Johnston the UK. PM. stepped in with armaments and he got the Europeans to supply Ukraine with more armaments, then the USA Joe Biden came up with a good supply of armaments which the Ukrainians were most grateful for. I felt sorry for Volodymyr Zelensky when he was attacked by Trump and his pack of hounds it was like Trump was a XX Bully dog with three Doberman dogs attacking a little Spaniel dog. I seen visions of Zelensky getting a big award like “Man of the Decade” or “Man of the Century” But now it seems he’s shot himself in the foot with the dismissal of the main defence man Fedorov. Every morning I go to my Computer and open the Ukraine News page to see what damage they have done to Russia. I wish, hope and Pray that Russia will give up in the next few weeks before Winter sets in, how those poor Ukrainians lived and survived without power or heating through last winter I’ll never know it says a lot for their resilience
Thanks - Gillie
Strong piece, and the China-dependency framing, six to twelve months of sustainment without those inputs, is the sharpest number I've seen on this. One honest caveat: I argued in 'The Man Who Cannot Afford Peace' that ending the war raises near-term recession risk through defence-industrial demobilisation. That claim is more contested than I presented it: Recorded Future's work on elite patronage networks supports it, but other analysts, using a lower GDP share for war spending, argue the opposite. Where we agree regardless of how that resolves: as I wrote there, the real danger to Putin from peace is political, not fiscal. It's the year after, when someone finally asks what a million casualties bought.
Hello, an indirectly related question: what do you think about the Economist interview with Melnichenko? The timing of it, the sincerity/ stakes, the reason behind giving this interview, what does this interview say about the state of the country, what is Putin’s relationship with Mr. M and this interview?
Ukraine is Winning based on real figures from verified sources The undeniable physical reality on the ground—from a 29.4% refinery outage to a collapsed Crimean supply chain—shows that the underlying material framework of this war is rapidly running out of time. Our models show that both Russian and Ukrainian Domestic Resilience (IRI/URI) are reaching absolute saturation thresholds, collapsing the Russian Negotiating Position (RNP) beneath its critical tipping boundary. See the verifiable, data-driven metrics athttps://substack.com/@thewartippingpointengineer