Ahead of the Duma election on September 18–20, I spoke with Handelsblatt’s Vera Fromm and Carsten Volkery about the war, the mood inside Russia and Putin’s calculation toward the West. This is my side of that conversation, in English. The German original is here.
I was recently asked how Putin could end this war without admitting his failure, given that he cannot achieve his military goals and has no exit strategy. The question contains an assumption: that he is looking for an exit. Very likely he is not looking for one at all. That is the fundamental error of thought in the West.
Putin’s position is this:
You Europeans will stop supporting Ukraine in six months. You Americans will not use force against me. I will talk to you politely. I don’t want a fight. But I will continue to do what I want. And who are you anyway?
To understand why he thinks he can afford this, you have to look at what he sees inside Russia, and at what he sees in the West.
The war of all Russians
After the full-scale invasion I said it was of the utmost importance for Putin to turn his war into the war of all Russians. He has not managed it. For a long time he tried to wage it as a “special military operation.” The mobilization of 2022 showed that Russian society is not willing to understand this war as something personal.
From history we know that Russians tolerate an unsuccessful war for no more than two years. Putin has done everything he can to avoid setting that stopwatch in motion. But since the Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries and depots this year, the countdown has been running.
The numbers show it. Approval of the war has risen because of the Ukrainian attacks, by seven percentage points since February. Putin’s personal approval ratings have collapsed. In the past both values rose together. Now they move in opposite directions. If military activity continues beyond 2027, his ratings will fall even more significantly.
For the moment he seems willing to pay a high political price. But declining ratings shift the center of power to the security forces that keep society under control. A rule can be backed by the security forces, but that is uncomfortable for Putin. How long he is still willing to pay that price is a question for the psychologists.
Almost the entire Russian elite is against the war. But as long as there is no dramatic defeat on the battlefield, the president does not have to fear this elite too much.
The mood before the election
The mood in the country could be read even before the vote. Take the anti-war party Yabloko. It was initially allowed to run because it was expected to get one or two percent. Then, within two weeks, its support shot up so high that the Kremlin got really scared. By our calculations Yabloko was suddenly at ten percent and could have risen further, to 20 or 25 percent. These were mainly protest voters.
For a democratic society, 25 percent of protest voters is not a critical mass. For a dictatorship it is a very strong signal, and the Kremlin was afraid it would become public. That is why Yabloko is now not allowed to run.
We estimate the anti-war opposition at about 15 percent of the population. On the other side are the “Z” turbo-patriots, the opposition from the other direction, and they also make up about 15 percent. The remaining 70 percent are politically inactive and make their decision in the moment.
We can see how far the opposition reaches through our channels on social media. If you take all the opposition media together, we reach about ten million people a day. In an extreme situation, such as the Wagner mutiny, that rises to as many as 30 million. It happens every time people realize that change is possible and that it depends on them.
Putin needs a mobilization
International observers expect a mobilization after the election. I am absolutely sure Putin needs one. It does not have to be announced. It will simply take place.
To allow a rotation of his troops alone, Putin needs 300,000 additional men. And because of the higher demands of this kind of warfare, he does not need just anyone. He needs educated people. By my estimate, half of them would have to be students and engineers.
If he were pragmatic, he would have to stop the war as soon as possible. But when I look at his psychological state, I have the impression that many of his decisions lately have not been based on pragmatism at all.
What Putin sees in the West
When you get inside Putin’s head, he thinks that Ukraine is tired. The West too. In Germany there will be a change of government, if not today then tomorrow, and the new government will stop supporting Ukraine. The same will happen in France next year. So I just have to hold on a little longer, Putin thinks, and then everything will be fine.
Every time the EU discusses a new aid package for Ukraine, it struggles just to make a decision. Maybe tomorrow it will not make one. So I, Putin, have to remain steadfast. That is his reasoning, and Europe has given him no reason to abandon it.
I have said nothing about the Americans so far. That is exactly how it looks in Putin’s head: there are no Americans out there. He thinks, “I will always find a common language with Trump.” If Trump were to change his position, the entire picture I have described would change immediately.
As long as China supplies Russia
Many people expect the economic crisis to force Putin’s hand. I do not expect an economic collapse. Current revenues from trade, including oil and gas, are enough to buy the necessary goods in China.
The second component is redistribution within the economy. Production capacity and human resources are geared to military needs, which means the infrastructure is not maintained or modernized. Barges sink, pipelines explode, the heating fails in winter, and in some regions five-storey buildings collapse. That is increasing, but it will not become critical in the next two years.
The only economic factor that could put an end to the war is the absence of supplies from China. As long as China continues to supply Russia, the situation can deteriorate endlessly and Putin can still continue the war.
Russia’s other partners have started to speak differently. India’s Prime Minister Modi recently said it was time to end the war. Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev was surprisingly critical. Those words do not mean much. Perhaps they said them in public and afterwards went to Putin: “Well, we had to say something to Washington.” And Putin replied: “All right, you keep buying my oil and supplying us with goods.”
It is a painful loss of reputation for Putin in the circle he moves in. But my impression is that strategic perspectives do not really interest him at the moment. He is totally fixated on winning this war. He is learning the names of small Ukrainian villages, and he does not bother to know the Kazakh president’s patronymic. That would be far more important than remembering the name “Mala Tokmachka.”
Europe has to find the strength
Germany has responded to the sabotage in Leipzig by closing the Russian consulate in Bonn and the Russian House in Berlin, announcing sharper border controls for Russians and sharply reducing the number of tourist visas. Experience shows that sabotage is not really related to the number of visas issued to Russians. Many of the people involved in sabotage have Western passports; some were even born in the West. Such measures do have symbolic significance, and reducing the number of Russian staff in diplomatic missions reduces the possibilities of the Russian intelligence services. But I am not sure this is the best way.
What Europe would have to do is find the strength to actually show Putin what it always says. We will support Ukraine for as long as necessary. We have decided on the rearmament plans and we will implement them. And according to these plans, in two years we will produce more weapons than Russia.
In that case Putin’s psychological state would look completely different. He would think: my God, I have to end this war as soon as possible, otherwise it is my end.
Unfortunately, Europe has not yet shown him this inner firmness. Instead, the impression emerges that it could stop the aid tomorrow. As long as that impression holds, Putin will keep waiting, and he will not be looking for a way out.
A little depressing. However I think you’re right. And perhaps under his calculation he will win.
To quote Mark Twain "There are lies, damned lies and statistics". Mala Tokmachka has been taken at least half a dozen times according to Russian media but still remains (just about) in Ukrainian hands. I worry that the Russian people's propensity to swallow 'damned lies', suffer deprivation and tolerate tyranny will extend this war into 2028.